Gbarnga, BONG COUNTY – More than two million voters scattered across Liberia’s 15 counties will in October elect a new president. However, each county has its own peculiarity and voting patterns that can shape the overall outcome of a poll.
By Selma Lomax, selma.lomax@frontpageafricaonline.com
From the look of things, this particular election is a three-horse race between the incumbent party the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) of President George Weah, the former ruling Unity Party (UP) of former Vice President Joseph Boakai, and the Collaborating Political Parties (CPP) of Alexander Cummings, with new challengers, Tiawon Gongloe of Liberia People Party and Dr. Clarence Moniba of the Liberia National Union Party, shaking up the established order.
A kaleidoscope of political possibilities has opened up as a result, with history not necessarily a useful guide to what comes next.
In Nimba County, Senator Prince Yormie Johnson in 2017 played a key role in the victory of the CDC in the county. However, ahead of the October polls, he is currently doing the exact opposite.
Having fallen out with President Weah over the Liberian leader’s reported failure to provide jobs for his kinsmen, the former warlord turned politician has vowed to ensure that the CDC loses the presidential election not only in his native county but in Liberia.
This typifies the fluidity and unpredictability of Liberian politics in these polls, and the same can be seen in many other counties.
FrontPageAfrica identified Monsterrado, Grand Bassa, Lofa, Bong, and Nimba as some potential battleground counties and analyzed some dominant factors which are likely to preoccupy voters’ minds as they head to this year’s much-anticipated presidential and legislative elections.
LOFA COUNTY:
President Weah will have an impressive showing in Lofa, compared with his 2017 poor outing in the county. The president, in the 2017 presidential election, had an abysmal showing in the county, which as at that time was indisputably a Unity Party enclave.
In that election, the then vice president obtained 91,324 votes, representing 78.5% of the total valid votes cast, with the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) getting 8,194 votes amounting to 7.0%. In the run-off, which was contested between Boakai and George Weah, things did not improve for the CDC, with the Unity Party getting 79,258 votes representing 84.2% and the CDC getting 14,860 votes or 15.8%.
Similarly, Mr. Brownie Samukai, a stalwart of the Unity Party which was at the time in a collaboration with the CPP, won the 2020 special senatorial election with 31.8% (20,431 votes) among 11 candidates. The CDC’s candidate Tengbeh, George Tamba (CDC), came fourth with 7,679 votes representing 11.95%.
One would have thought that the Unity Party would have won overwhelmingly but shockingly, the UP was humbled by the ruling Coalition for Democratic Change whose agents had been undertaking some massive developments in the county and carrying out engagements. Of course, Lofians being a traditional people, may not be carried away by these material developments, but these developments unarguably played a massive role in the voting process.
The Unity Party’s loss in Lofa reflects just more than what the CDC is doing in the county – it’s a reflection of a party that is losing touch with the people and an opposition party that can no longer stand by itself – without collaboration.
President Weah is definitely not going to have such poor performance, again, in the county in the 2023 election, from the look of things. The president and the CDC may not defeat his main challenger in Lofa, Boakai, but he will definitely score a much higher vote in the county not necessarily because the people of Lofa County have any love for him or that they have bought into the policies and programs of his administration, but because of the amalgam of political groups loyal to few natives of Lofa County working in his government, including Monrovia City Jefferson Koijee, Lofa County District One representative aspirant Thomas Fallah, Senatorial aspirant Moses Y. Kollie and Senator Joseph Jallah.
MONSTERRADO COUNTY:
Ahead of the October 10 presidential and legislative elections, Monsterrado County offers a snapshot of the opposing forces seeking to shape the country’s future – those seemingly content with the status quo and those who aspire for more.
With the largest number of registered voters – 809,201 – the county has emerged as a key battleground in a contest where each party is backed by an army of young people, mostly drawn from the third of Liberians who can’t find a job or are performing roles below their qualification.
Unemployment and the economy are key concerns for Liberian voters in the elections. Despite being Africa’s oldest republic, four out of 10 Liberians live below the poverty line, according to the World Bank.
Back in 2014, Weah swept 78 per cent of the votes to take a seat at the Senate, while his closest competitor, Robert Sirleaf – son for former President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf – managed only 10.8 percent of the votes.
Earlier in 2005, CDC two candidates – Joyce Musu Freeman and Hannah Brent – combined won 25.7 percent of the votes in a very parked and tight race. Another CDC candidate, the late Geraldine Doe-Sheriff, also went on to win 56 percent of the votes against a well-funded Clemenceau Urey, who earned 44 percent.
In 2018, another CDC candidate, Saah Joseph, claimed 55.1 percent of the vote to occupy the seat made vacant by the ascendancy of President Weah.
In 2019, opposition Abraham Darius Dillon secured a total of 102,549 votes or 55.74 percent to Wie’s 63,971 votes or 34.77 percent, and would go on to win re-election a year later, defeating the CDC candidate Thomas Fallah. Though Dillon’s victory could be attributed to the strength of the Collaborating Political Parties which Dillon’s Liberty Party, Alexander Cummings’ Alternative National Congress and Unity Party of Joseph Boakai were a member, his victory, however according to political pundits, showed the ruling party’s diminishing influence in a county once regarded as its stronghold.
Ahead of this year’s election, the CDC is facing a more sophisticated opposition despite the breakup of the CPP. How the ruling party settles its previous struggles in Monsterrado County remains to be seen ahead of October.
NIMBA COUNTY:
Nimba, Liberia’s second vote-rich county with over three hundred thousand registered voters according to the National Elections Commission, is also one of the battlegrounds for the presidential elections. The most possible outcome will be a close call between the Unity Party, the Coalition for Democratic Change, Tiawon Gongloe and the Collaborating Political Parties (CPP).
Factors such as the naming of Nimba Senator Jeremiah Koung as running mate to Boakai, the influence of the “face” of the county, Senator Prince Johnson’s support to the Boakai-Koung ticket, and other key natives of the county, is expected to give the Unity Party an edge over the incumbent.
Also in Nimba, the CPP has in its folds, big wigs like businessman turned politician Musa Hassan Bility, whose presence within the CPP has given an image to the party in the county, as well as former Nimba County superintendent Fong Zuagele. The CPP has made more visits to Nimba County than any rural county, setting cells and identifying with people-centered initiatives, which political pundits believed could pay off in October.
Also, Cllr. Gongloe is expected to garner more of his votes in Nimba than any county, considering his nativity. Cllr Gongloe, a member of the Mano ethnic group, may appease his kinsmen to vote for him based on the history of the tribal politics between the Gio and Mano that had long overshadowed the county politics.
For the ruling party, one factor that may likely favor President Weah’s candidacy is the backlog of the achievements recorded over the years in road construction. What is certain in the upcoming election, according to many, is that the people of Nimba County will definitely go to the poll in October to vote based on past experiences or antecedents.
BONG COUNTY:
At the last count of votes in the presidential election in October 2019, the Coalition of Democratic Change, was declared to have scored the highest number of votes in Bong County, to beat the Unity Party.
The defeat was resounding, as the then Bong County senator and vice standard bearer to CDC’s Weah, Jewel Howard-Taylor, held sway and had campaigned vigorously. That was the first time the CDC had won Bong County in a presidential election, a feat many political pundits attributed to the presence on the ticket of Jewel Howard-Taylor, who had two years earlier won re-election as senator of Bong County.
The CDC took the county by garnering 57 percent of the votes to beat the Unity Party to the second position with 35 percent during the polls. The CDC took advantage of the division in the Unity Party which suffered a severe fracture following the executives of the Unity Party Bong Chapter’s mismanagement of the internal crisis. The CDC and Jewel Howard-Taylor fever was also very endemic at the time, leaving nothing on its path as it swept through the entire landscape.
But things seem to have changed for the CDC in the county as the party has lost three by-elections – 2018, 2021 and 2021 – seemingly attributed to the internal party crisis. Ahead of the October election, similar internal party crisis is still visible, with Bong County District Three lawmaker Marvin Cole reportedly threatening to snub the party to contest as an independent candidate over the party’s refusal to make him campaign manager.
The debate in Bong County seems to be favoring the CDC for the fact that many believed re-electing their daughter as vice president would be a boost to the county than supporting someone from another county.
The CPP, meanwhile, has made a significant move to lure Henry Yallah, to spearhead the party’s campaign in the county. The former Bong County Senator, who garnered over 25,000 votes when he lost his re-election bid to Senator Prince Moye of Unity Party, has kept his team together since 2020, and many expect him to help the CPP make an inroad in Bong County.
The Unity Party, meanwhile, still looks strong in Bong, especially with the likes of Senator Prince Moye, Robert Womba, Henrique Tokpa, and influential commissioners in the county.
GRAND BASSA:
Here, is going to be a proxy political fight between the CPP vice standard bearer, Charlyne Brumskine, and Senator Nyonblee Karngar-Lawrence for the soul of the county. Their political rivalry has reached a point where both women are aiming to prove a point. Charlyne, daughter of the founding father of Liberty Party, Charles Brumskine, may be new to politics but one advantage she has working in her favor is her late father’s legacy. Her father, prior to his demise, had always won Grand Bassa County, and with Bassonians (natives of the county) rooting behind her candidacy, political pundits believed the odds might be in the CPP’s favor to win the county. Another advantage that seems to be working for the CPP is the support of former Senate Pro Tempore, Gbehzohngar Findley. Like him or not, Findley is influential in Bassa politics as evidenced by the previous result he garnered when he lost the Senate election to Nyonblee Karngar-Lawrence by less than a thousand votes.
The ruling party, meanwhile, could put up a fight in Grand Bassa if the party completes key campaign promises in the county.
